Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20     51.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  36.3  29.3  23.3  22.3  18.6  16.9  19.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  21.0  42.0  48.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         98.6  56.7  38.7  62.2  83.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  44.0  65.0 107.0  67.0  72.0  98.0  85.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  66.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        4.4%        4.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons