Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  24.0  23.2  19.4  18.6  18.1  22.4  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   7.0  14.0  28.0  42.0  46.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         76.5  72.2 117.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  95.0  53.0  61.0  98.0  94.0  98.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.7%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h       13.8%        4.1%        8.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons