Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210120 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60     48.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  26.2  19.9  21.9  22.5  23.2  28.1  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  74.0  40.0  35.0  86.0  34.0  67.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   8.0   9.0  13.0  21.0  17.0  31.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%