Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210120 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     46.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  20.2  23.5  22.3  16.2  15.6  12.9  23.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  59.0  59.0  45.0  39.0  60.0  31.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  78.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  56.0  33.0  62.0  72.0  44.0  52.0  24.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  10.0   5.0  10.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       23.9%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%       11.6%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%       11.6%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        7.8%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       31.2%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%       12.6%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h       20.3%       27.3%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%       13.3%        9.6%
 65kt / 72h       26.2%       22.7%       24.4%