Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     43.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  29.4  18.6  18.6  21.9  14.8  24.1  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  45.0  36.0  37.0  57.0  37.0  27.8   9.3  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  87.0  93.0  62.0  85.0  62.0  29.0  40.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   9.0   9.0   4.0   4.0   3.0  -6.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       12.1%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.3%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%       12.9%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        3.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.6%       12.4%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.7%        5.6%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h       28.7%       15.6%       22.1%