Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210121 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     42.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  17.3  17.9  21.1  17.0  27.3  24.1  22.6  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 101.6  67.9  57.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0 106.0  92.0  48.0  66.0  55.0  34.0  18.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  17.0  10.0   7.0   6.0  13.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       12.4%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.9%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.9%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       14.1%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        6.6%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%