Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.4  29.9  26.7  23.1  25.3  21.6  22.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  35.0  41.0  44.0  20.7   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  63.0  54.3  40.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   130.0  92.0  45.0  70.0  15.0  16.0   3.0  82.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  64.0  71.0  66.0  74.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   3.0 -17.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        9.7%        9.7%
 25kt / 24h       30.8%       45.7%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       30.6%       23.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.8%       30.6%       23.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       27.0%       14.8%
 45kt / 36h       14.5%       42.2%       28.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%       21.5%       13.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        9.6%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        8.3%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        4.6%        2.5%