Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210121 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80     40.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  27.3  25.8  18.9  25.3  24.3  32.3  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  64.0  87.0  78.0  53.0  32.0  13.0  70.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  15.0  14.0   8.0  16.0  -6.0   0.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        4.5%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       29.9%       21.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       18.3%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       18.3%       12.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       17.0%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       25.9%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%       10.3%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%       13.2%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.9%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        5.2%        2.8%