Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     39.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  23.3  15.5  14.8  19.4  16.3  17.3  17.7  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  49.0  39.0  34.0  26.4  18.9  11.3   3.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  61.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  64.0  46.0  53.0  28.0  -4.0  52.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  71.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0  -4.0   5.0   4.0 -14.0 -10.0  -5.0  U  N  F  N  N VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.1%       17.1%       24.6%
 25kt / 24h       50.9%       61.0%       56.0%
 30kt / 24h       47.7%       54.8%       51.2%
 35kt / 24h       47.7%       54.8%       51.2%
 40kt / 24h       18.7%       54.8%       36.7%
 45kt / 36h       33.1%       49.1%       41.1%
 55kt / 36h       19.0%       29.6%       24.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.9%       31.4%       24.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%       17.7%       11.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%       15.9%        9.8%