Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210122 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20     36.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  15.9  17.7  20.6  20.0  12.7  11.9  20.5  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  17.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  44.6  17.7  10.0   4.2  -0.3 -10.4  -6.6  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  35.0  52.0  28.0  24.0  41.0  75.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  69.0  74.0  67.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  10.0   6.0   5.0  -5.0   6.0   5.0  10.0  N  U  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.8%       31.3%       45.1%
 25kt / 24h       21.9%       18.7%       20.3%
 30kt / 24h       21.9%       15.1%       18.5%
 35kt / 24h       21.9%       15.1%       18.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.7%       11.5%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons