Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210123 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00     34.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  16.4  11.2  15.7  13.5  10.7  14.6   9.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.8  21.7  36.1  53.5  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  35.0  36.0  29.0  68.0  49.0  25.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  67.0  72.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   1.0  -5.0  -8.0  -9.0 VF  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%        2.5%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        4.4%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        1.7%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons