Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.90     33.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  14.3  16.8  14.8  11.2  16.7  19.0  14.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.7  30.7  20.8  14.1  16.9  16.9  12.7  18.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  21.0  55.0  59.0  39.0  20.0  38.0  12.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   9.0   0.0  -6.0 -22.0 -14.0   1.0  N  N  U  N  F VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons