Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30     32.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  16.8  14.8  17.3  13.4  19.7  15.8  20.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.5  63.0  74.6 105.7 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  55.0  60.0  53.0  18.0  39.0  20.0  57.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  76.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   9.0   0.0  -3.0  -7.0 -11.0 -10.0   7.0  N  U  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons