Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.20     29.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3   8.8   8.6   8.9  10.9  15.7  21.3  22.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.8  83.0  94.6  91.5  72.0  63.7  58.3  51.2  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  77.0  51.0  43.0  62.0  42.0  71.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  80.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  77.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -8.0  -7.0  -7.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons