Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.90     26.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  10.4   9.6  10.0  23.7  19.8  34.0  21.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.7  77.0  85.4  92.2 102.7 111.2 102.7  89.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  60.0  57.0  33.0  51.0  34.0  59.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  68.0  66.0  54.0  43.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        5.5%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        0.9%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons