Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     97.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  39.1  41.1  38.0  41.3  38.7  38.1  38.0  U  U VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  37.0  37.0  38.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  41.0  49.0  51.0  51.0  70.0  94.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   5.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        6.1%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.9%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        2.7%        2.4%