Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210121 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     96.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  41.1  38.7  39.4  41.5  39.4  39.2  41.2  U VU  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 122.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  49.0  51.0  60.0  59.0  68.0  88.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0  -3.0  -2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        6.5%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        3.2%        3.8%