Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  36.5  39.6  42.4  38.8  38.6  33.9  31.1  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  48.0  51.0  53.0  56.0  49.0  30.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 120.1 105.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  39.0  41.0  57.0  63.0  74.0  65.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0  14.0  13.0   7.0  10.0   9.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        1.0%        1.1%