Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210122 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     97.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.2  39.9  32.5  29.1  29.5  22.6  29.9  32.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  42.0  40.0  37.0  22.0   2.0   0.5   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 120.1  98.0  87.7  75.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  68.0  56.0  48.0  60.0  46.0  70.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%