Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210122 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  30.7  27.7  27.0  25.7  23.2  21.8  22.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        129.3 127.0 124.6 122.3 115.7 107.4  98.0  91.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  44.0  37.0  36.0  27.0  32.0  34.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.9%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        2.5%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        1.7%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.9%        5.4%        9.6%