Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210122 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  32.6  27.2  26.0  18.6  15.7  18.1  30.5  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  14.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 109.4  92.7  83.0  69.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  19.0  38.0  47.0  18.0  16.0  24.0  25.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        7.2%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%