Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210122 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  30.6  26.0  21.2  18.6  10.8  13.6  21.4  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        129.3 127.0 124.6 120.1 105.5  96.2  94.4  91.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  38.0  47.0  32.0  19.0  18.0  28.0  20.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  61.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  48.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        9.3%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       11.5%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        3.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%        4.6%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%        4.1%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       28.9%       11.6%       20.3%