Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210123 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     97.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  27.5  22.1  20.0  16.4  16.1  23.0  27.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        122.3 120.1 111.5 103.5  94.4  87.7  87.7  86.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  31.0  35.0  60.0  39.0  54.0  41.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.0%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        6.8%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        1.6%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.6%       13.6%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h       13.6%        2.3%        8.0%
 65kt / 72h       20.7%        5.1%       12.9%