Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210123 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10     97.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  21.4  18.3  17.1  13.8  19.4  23.8  29.2  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  10.0   3.0   2.7   2.1   1.6   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 107.4 101.6  96.2  91.0  87.7  87.7  86.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  36.0  66.0  45.0  38.0  34.0  16.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  52.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -6.0 -14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        0.9%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons