Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210123 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.30     97.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  19.7  19.2  14.6  16.3  18.3  26.0  29.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        118.6 110.5 104.8 101.2  96.0  94.3  94.3  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  67.0  45.0  50.0  32.0  13.0  30.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  57.0  57.0  51.0  50.0  45.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0 -13.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        8.6%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h       21.3%       21.3%       21.3%
 70kt / 48h       21.3%        3.2%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       27.4%        6.7%       17.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons