Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210124 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80     97.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  23.7  18.7  15.9  19.3  19.2  26.8  23.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   3.0   2.7   2.3   1.7   1.0   1.2   1.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.5  98.0  92.7  89.3  89.3  91.0  87.7  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  24.0  20.0  30.0  46.0   9.0  18.0 -24.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  47.0  43.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.9%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons