Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     96.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  17.4  16.1  18.1  21.4  23.5  27.8  21.4  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        104.8 103.0 101.2  99.4  97.7  92.7  91.1  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  20.0  30.0  45.0  31.0  12.0 -11.0 -48.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  39.0  42.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        7.8%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h       22.8%       22.8%       22.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.8%        3.0%       12.9%
 65kt / 72h       22.4%        5.3%       13.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons