Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     96.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.1  22.8  24.8  21.8  33.7  30.8  27.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   6.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 103.0 101.2 101.2  97.7  94.3  94.3 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  11.0  33.0  25.0  12.0   0.0 -30.0 -44.0  U  U  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   8.0  12.0  11.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons