Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210124 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     95.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.1  25.0  23.1  26.8  31.8  24.9  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        106.6 104.8 103.0 101.2  97.7  97.7 106.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  33.0  25.0  21.0  25.0 -25.0 -28.0 -13.0  U  N  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  41.0  41.0  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.3%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%        9.7%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.7%        1.2%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h       13.1%        3.2%        8.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons