Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50     95.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  19.4  19.3  17.5  25.8  23.2  24.7  26.5  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  12.0  19.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8  98.0  96.2  92.7  89.3  96.2 105.5 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  25.0  28.0  35.0  -7.0 -44.0 -53.0 -13.0  U  U  U  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  48.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  44.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -7.0  -1.0   2.0   8.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.2%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons