Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     95.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  19.3  17.5  24.4  23.9  21.4  25.2  23.1  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        101.2  99.4  97.7  96.0  96.0 104.8 116.5 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  27.0  34.0  24.0 -23.0 -52.0 -26.0   0.0  U  U  N  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  41.0  43.0  41.0  34.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -8.0  -6.0   1.0   7.0  11.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h       13.9%       13.9%       13.9%
 70kt / 48h       13.9%        1.4%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h       17.6%        4.2%       10.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons