Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210125 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     94.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  25.0  25.0  28.8  27.1  35.4  28.3  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         89.3  87.7  87.7  91.0  96.2 103.5 117.9 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  24.0 -19.0  -2.0 -33.0  -7.0  13.0  17.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  42.0  43.0  37.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   7.0  22.0  25.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        5.9%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%        0.9%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%        2.0%        6.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons