Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  26.2  28.5  23.0  29.9  26.2  23.5  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   8.0  11.0  18.0  19.0  21.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         89.3  89.3  92.7  96.2 105.5 107.4 113.6 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -17.0 -17.0 -37.0 -32.0  -3.0  23.0   0.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  44.0  47.0  42.0  43.0  38.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  16.0  19.0  16.0  21.0  F  N  N  N  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons