Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210126 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  28.3  23.6  24.7  32.2  23.8  22.2  21.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         87.7  89.3  94.4  94.4 103.5 117.9 120.1 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -17.0 -37.0 -36.0 -21.0  19.0   9.0   2.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  44.0  40.0  41.0  35.0  36.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   3.0   5.0   8.0  21.0  19.0  17.0  20.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        4.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        0.5%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%        2.2%        7.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons