Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210126 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  24.6  19.6  23.2  22.8  16.8  15.2  14.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   7.0   9.0  12.0  12.0  18.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         87.7  92.7  94.4  98.0 101.6 113.6 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -20.0 -31.0 -15.0   3.0  12.0   9.0  13.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  47.0  44.0  46.0  42.0  40.0  41.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0   1.0   7.0   8.0  13.0  10.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        3.0%        3.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons