Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210126 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     93.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  18.1  20.9  24.7  21.0  19.8  14.5  10.1  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   2.5   0.0  10.0   3.0  29.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  89.3  83.0  81.5  98.0  94.4 124.6 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -18.0  -7.0   3.0  16.0   4.0  17.0  15.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  42.0  46.0  45.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   8.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.8%        1.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons