Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210127 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     91.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  23.2  24.7  20.6  19.3  16.8  14.4  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  11.0   7.0  20.0  20.0  47.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         91.0  96.2  98.0 107.4 117.9 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -35.0 -16.0 -16.0  13.0   5.0  14.0  23.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  38.0  41.0  39.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   5.0   9.0   8.0  12.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%        4.8%        7.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons