Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210127 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  24.3  21.0  17.8  17.9  14.7  15.6  16.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         92.7  99.8  99.8 115.7 120.1 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0 -16.0 -16.0   0.0  19.0   4.0  26.0  40.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  38.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        4.7%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%       11.6%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.6%        2.2%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h       42.3%       11.1%       26.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons