Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210127 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40     90.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  22.6  18.8  16.5  15.0  13.1  13.4  17.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0  30.0  22.0  43.0  49.0  47.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 104.8 122.9 120.7 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -24.0  -5.0   5.0   1.0   6.0  15.0  36.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  43.0  41.0  43.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  -1.0   4.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        1.7%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        1.4%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h       19.4%        8.0%       13.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons