Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210127 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     87.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  18.4  16.7  16.4  14.0  13.2  18.6  22.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  22.0  37.0  52.0  54.0  43.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        117.4 123.6 119.4 137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  -5.0   5.0   3.0   7.0  22.0  29.0  13.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  42.0  42.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        3.2%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        2.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       27.8%       10.9%       19.3%