Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210128 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70     85.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  15.9  14.3  11.3  11.9  12.9  20.2  24.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        116.5 118.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -5.0   2.0  11.0  17.0  33.0  11.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  42.0  39.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       16.2%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        6.4%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       35.3%       21.9%
 55kt / 36h        7.6%       15.9%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h       25.8%       21.1%       23.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       20.5%       22.6%
 65kt / 72h       58.1%       36.5%       47.3%