Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210128 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  17.8  11.8  11.9  13.4  15.4  21.0  22.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  32.0  48.0  50.0  47.0  29.0  29.0  36.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 129.6 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   9.0  39.0  -5.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  42.0  45.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       13.2%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        5.2%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.4%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        4.4%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       25.4%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%        9.0%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       13.3%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h       13.7%       10.2%       12.0%
 65kt / 72h       31.9%       19.9%       25.9%