Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210129 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30     80.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  16.1  15.1  14.1  14.4  16.4  10.9  14.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  52.0  50.0  56.0  35.0  42.0  32.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 132.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  -3.0  16.0  15.0  40.0  30.0  23.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  37.0  39.0  42.0  43.0  48.0  51.0  59.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       17.3%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        6.5%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.3%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.3%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       31.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%       12.4%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       20.0%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h       13.3%       14.0%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h       46.2%       35.8%       41.0%