Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210129 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60     78.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  16.6  16.1  14.6  19.6  22.6  26.6  27.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  45.0  49.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  32.0  23.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  16.0   5.0  18.0  35.0  41.0  13.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   28.0  29.0  35.0  36.0  43.0  42.0  48.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       32.5%       19.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%       15.3%        9.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%       15.3%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       13.1%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       47.8%       27.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       26.4%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.5%       28.3%       22.9%
 70kt / 48h       12.3%       23.3%       17.8%
 65kt / 72h       35.9%       32.3%       34.1%