Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210129 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50     77.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  17.5  11.9   8.1  12.8  12.3  16.5  19.5  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  49.0  40.0  41.0  27.0  28.0  24.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 139.3 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   6.0  17.0   8.0  19.0  10.0   0.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   31.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  42.0  42.0  46.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       16.3%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        6.0%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        6.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.0%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       27.8%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       11.3%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.4%       19.4%       17.9%
 70kt / 48h       15.3%       13.6%       14.5%
 65kt / 72h       47.2%       30.2%       38.7%