Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210129 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  11.5   8.6  14.8  17.6  19.3  19.3  22.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  17.0   8.0  27.0   9.0  14.0  10.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  37.0  38.0  41.0  41.0  50.0  54.0  61.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%       11.2%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       17.7%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        5.5%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        9.5%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        5.7%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       11.6%       10.3%