Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210130 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     73.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  12.7  15.4  17.8  23.7  28.4  29.7  29.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  42.0  34.0  28.0  40.0  25.0  36.0  37.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  18.0  37.0  26.0  18.0  11.0  22.0 -18.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  35.0  38.0  40.0  44.0  46.0  52.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.9%       28.4%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%       12.1%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%       12.1%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       11.5%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       37.8%       21.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%       17.8%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       17.5%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%       12.8%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h       22.8%       20.4%       21.6%