Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210130 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  16.8  17.8  20.0  29.4  26.2  29.4  25.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  37.0  26.0  12.0  20.0   0.0  13.0  14.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  38.0  42.0  42.0  45.0  49.0  53.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        4.4%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       35.6%       22.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%       16.9%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%       16.9%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       13.9%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       43.2%       24.9%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       22.1%       13.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%       22.6%       20.2%
 70kt / 48h       13.0%       18.3%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       46.1%       33.7%       39.9%