Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210130 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     69.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  19.3  20.2  22.6  25.1  27.4  22.3  20.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  27.0  34.0  38.0  27.0  31.0  30.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  19.0  18.0  26.0   0.0  21.0   5.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  43.0  46.0  48.0  53.0  60.0  60.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        3.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       28.1%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%       13.2%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%       13.2%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       10.1%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       35.4%       19.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%       16.8%        9.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%       16.6%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%       12.4%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h       15.4%       24.4%       19.9%