Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132021 210130 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     67.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  15.2  15.2  15.7  15.9  19.5  20.5  23.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -15.0   5.0  15.0   7.0  19.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  52.0  56.0  65.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%       11.6%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.9%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       18.6%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        6.1%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        9.5%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        5.8%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%       12.0%        8.6%